Sports

Chalky championship runs — a new trend or classic fool’s gold?

Chris Fallica FOX Sports Wagering Expert If it feels like this recent run of champions, and sports as a whole, has been a little bit chalky and predictable, that feeling would be accurate. What has resulted for underdog and contrarian bettors has been a bit of a dry spell. So, while there’s little solace to […]

Published

1 month ago

April 18, 2025

KP News Desk

Chalky championship runs — a new trend or classic fool’s gold?

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

If it feels like this recent run of champions, and sports as a whole, has been a little bit chalky and predictable, that feeling would be accurate.

What has resulted for underdog and contrarian bettors has been a bit of a dry spell. So, while there’s little solace to your bank account, know that you aren’t alone.

Let’s review what has happened over the last 10 months or so.

Prior to the college football season, most expected the favorite Georgia (+300) or second choice Ohio State (+325) to win the College Football Playoff. South Point’s Chris Andrews even posted a prop where you could bet those two vs. the field.

It got a little sketchy there for a bit, but Ohio State did win the CFP and that was a good result for the book, as most of the money on the prop was wagered on the field.

“You steered the ship in getting that prop posted,” Andrews said. “It wasn’t looking good for a while, but we got there and did great.”

What wasn’t as good for the books was the run of favorites in the CFP itself. Eleven CFP games were won by 10 favorites (9-2 ATS), with Notre Dame’s win over Penn State as a one-point dog in the Orange Bowl representing the lone game won by an underdog.

Players loaded up on moneyline parlays on the four favorites in the first round, and it was a rocking chair win for the bettors.

“Oh yeah, that was bad — the first round was brutal with the moneyline parlays,” Andrews lamented. “Only the Notre Dame game was OK for us against the spread in the first round. The others we lost pretty good. But as a Penn State fan, I sure couldn’t root for SMU.”

Favorites running through the CFP simply mirrored what was happening in the NFL. If you were a ‘dog player in the NFL, you couldn’t get one to win. It was a terrible season for sharps and the books, while a lot of public bettors were celebrating, hitting over 60% on NFL sides.

NFL favorites won outright at a 72.1% clip this season, the highest percentage since 2005. Favorites covered at a 54.1% clip, also the highest since 2005.

Consider this a warning, however.

If you made a killing on those favorites this season, don’t get too cocky. In 2006, those numbers came crashing down to favorites winning 59.8% of the time and covering just 43.8% of the time.

Will regression rear its ugly head again this year? Underdog bettors and the books are certainly hoping so.

I mentioned the 2005 note to Andrews and got a laugh from him.

“That’s so funny. I told people this was our worst year since 2005, so that makes perfect sense now.

“It was one of those years where everyone seemed to have it figured out. Mostly moneyline parlays, but home favorites, short road favorites — it didn’t seem to matter. One guy even gave credit to AI for all his success.”

“It’s not a big secret that we didn’t do well on moneyline parlays in the NFL,” said John Murray of the SuperBook. “December was just poor. We couldn’t get a ‘dog to win outright.”

“College was OK though, we did very well on Penn State-Boise State and Ohio State-Oregon CFP games. Those ‘dogs were very popular. We had a good future position on Ohio State as well,” added Murray,

“The NFL regular season is really what we’re talking about here. The playoffs were good here. We had a good Super Bowl and Washington beating Detroit outright was a great result for us.”

Even in professional baseball — one of the most random sports historically — the Dodgers (+350) became just the second preseason favorite to win the World Series in the last 15 years (2016 Cubs were the other). It was an all-chalk series as L.A. disposed of the AL favorites and AL champion Yankees in five games.

Table of Contents

Can the Yankees win the World Series this year?

About the only sport which stayed true to its wild playoff outcomes was the NHL. The Florida Panthers (+2200 preseason, +800 start of playoffs) defeated the Edmonton Oilers in a dramatic seven-game series to hoist the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history.

While the Cup provided drama, the NBA Finals happening at the same time did not.

Preseason favorite Boston (+400) rolled to an easy win over Dallas to capture the NBA title.

Fresh on everyone’s minds, however, is the recent run of favorites and public sides in the NCAA Tournament and at The Masters. And that’s really what spurred me on to write all of this down.

Florida could have been had at 60-1 in December, was at +800 in March when it seemed everyone owned a Gators ticket, and then went into the tourney right there with Duke at +325. It was a charmed, magical run, which could have ended in Round 2 vs. Connecticut, in the Elite Eight vs. Texas Tech, in the Final Four vs. Auburn, and in the title game against Houston.

It was a microcosm of the Tournament as a whole, with seven of the top eight seeds reaching the Sweet 16, all four 1-seeds reaching the Final Four, and just one upset from the Sweet 16 on — that was Houston’s improbable comeback against Duke in the Final Four.

“We lost on parlays in March and that tells the story,” Murray said. “The second weekend was no good. Sweet 16 and Elite Eight favorites went 12-0 straight up, and that was a problem. If we could have gotten either Arkansas to hold on against Texas Tech or Texas Tech to finish off Florida, that obviously would have helped.”

“What’s so unique about the tourney is how the first two days, the public seems to love the ‘dogs. The bracket comes out and everyone talks themselves into the same ’dog, and we’ll need the favorites. In the second round, that worked out good for us. A game like Purdue blowing out High Point was great.”

“We did OK in the futures. I kind of saw it coming with Florida. I had my eyes on them for a while, and we were able to maneuver some things around,” Andrews said.

“Having the matchup exactas and the SEC vs. the field prop helped. We actually were sweating the 3-seed to win the title prop, which Texas Tech was very close to reaching the Final Four. What was funny is that all I heard around town was that everyone needed Houston to beat Duke. I actually needed Duke to beat Houston, and we all saw what happened there. After the tourney, I looked and our hold was 2.1%. I was like, ‘How the hell did we do that?’”

The women’s NCAA Tournament was its usual predictable self, with powerhouse Connecticut winning the title. The seed line said two, but the Huskies rolled through the tourney uncontested as the most bet-on team at BetMGM (18% of the money) to cut down the nets, a position which was strengthened when USC sadly lost star JuJu Watkins to a knee injury.

And that brings us to The Masters.

Rory McIlroy wins Masters in playoff thriller, completes career Grand Slam

No player had more money bet on him to win at BetMGM (19%) than public favorite Rory McIlroy, who was attempting to win the career grand slam for the 11th time. McIlroy is almost a bit of a tragic figure in the sport, given his 2011 collapse at Augusta and last year at the U.S. Open, along with failing to close out the 2022 Open Championship.

The narrative entering the tourney was that it was his time. And as the +650 second choice in the betting and everyone’s pick, McIlroy finally got there. One could actually get a better price on McIlroy after the first round when he double-bogeyed two of the final four holes and shot an opening round 72.

As was the case at BetMGM, the SuperBook had a ton of tickets on McIlroy, but Murray said they did OK there.

“Jeff (Sherman) did a really good job of staying ahead of things with Rory, so it wasn’t a huge liability. By the time Sunday rolled around, we definitely wanted Rory to win as Bryson DeChambeau was bet consistently every day. And after Rory double-bogeyed the first hole, we were like, ‘Here we go,’ but Bryson ultimately fell out of contention, which was good for us.”

My wallet wouldn’t share those same sentiments, considering DeChambeau was my pre-tourney pick.

All price-seekers can hope for is that the worm turns. But don’t expect that to start with the NBA playoffs, where it appears we’re headed towards an inevitable Celtics-Thunder Finals.

And that would be just fine with Andrews and Murray.

“A chalk final would be beautiful for me,” Andrews said. “We’re sweating the Lakers and Warriors. Jimmy Butler is one of my favorite players. We never saw that trade coming, just like with Luka Dončić — a trade out of the blue. Those teams never had a prayer until those deals, but now those two are heavy sweats.”

“Boston-OKC is exactly what we want. We do really well either way,” Murray said.

“The Lakers are a bad result for us. Had we known the Mavs were going to give away Luka Dončić, we could have been a little bit more prepared. But we’ll see what happens. Beating the Timberwolves and then probably Golden State isn’t a given.”

Despite a choppy run, books certainly don’t expect any sympathy. Nor do I expect anyone to be starting a “Root for the Books” podcast anytime soon.

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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2025 PGA Championship purse, prize money: Payouts and winnings

Another classic is complete at Quail Hollow Club, where the world’s best golfers competed not only for the prestigious Wanamaker Trophy but also for a massive payday. The 2025 PGA Championship features a $19 million purse, continuing the trend of record-setting prize funds at golf’s major championships. While Scottie Scheffler took away his winner’s share […]

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2 days ago

May 19, 2025

KP News Desk

2025 PGA Championship purse, prize money: Payouts and winnings

While Scottie Scheffler took away his winner’s share of over $3 million, even those who made the cut walked away with a significant check, reinforcing the tournament’s status as one of the most lucrative and competitive events in the sport.

Let’s take a look at the complete 2025 PGA Championship prize money breakdown, including the total purse and payouts for each position in the field.

Table of Contents

PGA Championship Winner: PGA Tour Player or Liv Golfer?

2025 PGA Championship prize money, purse, payouts

Total purse: $19 million

1st: Scottie Scheffler ($3,420,000)
T2: Bryson DeChambeau ($1,418,666.67)
T2: Harris English ($1,418,666.67)
T2: Davis Riley ($1,418,666.67)
T5: Jhonattan Vegas ($617,036.66)
T5: Taylor Pendrith ($617,036.66)
T5: J.T. Poston ($617,036.66)
T8: Joaquín Niemann ($454,781.11)
T8: Ben Griffin ($454,781.11)
T8: Denny McCarthy ($454,781.11)
T8: Ryan Gerard ($454,781.11)
T8: Joe Highsmith ($454,781.11)
T8: Matt Fitzpatrick ($454,781.11)
T8: Keegan Bradley ($454,781.11)
T8: Jon Rahm ($454,781.11)
T8: Si Woo Kim ($454,781.11)
T17: Matt Wallace ($290,925.00)
T17: Alex Noren ($290,925.00)
T19: Sam Burns ($193,442.22)
T19: Corey Conners ($193,442.22)
T19: Beau Hossler ($193,442.22)
T19: Aaron Rai ($193,442.22)
T19: Harry Hall ($193,442.22)
T19: Taylor Moore ($193,442.22)
T19: Cam Davis ($193,442.22)
T19: Adam Scott ($193,442.22)
T19: Tony Finau ($193,442.22)
T28: Xander Schauffele ($115,820.00)
T28: Marco Penge ($115,820.00)
T28: Viktor Hovland ($115,820.00)
T28: Alex Smalley ($115,820.00)
T28: Ryan Fox ($115,820.00)
T33: Daniel Berger ($89,192.50)
T33: Thorbjørn Olesen ($89,192.50)
T33: Maverick McNealy ($89,192.50)
T33: Max Greyserman ($89,192.50)
T37: Richard Bland ($75,422.50)
T37: J.J. Spaun ($75,422.50)
T37: Ryo Hisatsune ($75,422.50)
T37: Lucas Glover ($75,422.50)
T41: Nicolai Højgaard ($60,676.66)
T41: Tommy Fleetwood ($60,676.66)
T41: Eric Cole ($60,676.66)
T41: Nico Echavarria ($60,676.66)
T41: Michael Thorbjornsen ($60,676.66)
T41: Matthieu Pavon ($60,676.66)
T47: Rory McIlroy ($49,190.00)
T47: Cameron Young ($49,190.00)
T47: Robert MacIntyre ($49,190.00)
T50: Kevin Yu ($40,674.00)
T50: Collin Morikawa ($40,674.00)
T50: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($40,674.00)
T50: Tom McKibbin ($40,674.00)
T50: Wyndham Clark ($40,674.00)
T55: Chris Kirk ($32,138.00)
T55: Brian Campbell ($32,138.00)
T55: Michael Kim ($32,138.00)
T55: Rafael Campos ($32,138.00)
T55: Garrick Higgo ($32,138.00)
T60: Brian Harman ($27,014.25)
T60: Justin Lower ($27,014.25)
T60: Sam Stevens ($27,014.25)
T60: Luke Donald ($27,014.25)
T60: Max Homa ($27,014.25)
T60: Tyrrell Hatton ($27,014.25)
T60: David Puig ($27,014.25)
T67: Sergio Garcia ($24,926.66)
T67: Austin Eckroat ($24,926.66)
T67: Rasmus Højgaard ($24,926.66)
70th: Stephan Jaeger ($24,240.00)
71st: Tom Kim ($23,940.00)
T72: Bud Cauley ($23,655.00)
T72: Elvis Smylie ($23,655.00)
74th: Byeong Hun An ($23,420.00)

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Scottie Scheffler pulls away from Jon Rahm on back 9 to win 2025 PGA Championship

Scottie Scheffler has claimed another major tournament championship, but his first outside of Augusta. Scheffler won the 2025 PGA Championship on Sunday, shooting par in the final round to finish the tournament 11 under at Quail Hollow. While Scheffler was able to ride his dominant Round 3 on Saturday into a victory, there was a […]

Published

2 days ago

May 19, 2025

KP News Desk

Scottie Scheffler pulls away from Jon Rahm on back 9 to win 2025 PGA Championship

While Scheffler was able to ride his dominant Round 3 on Saturday into a victory, there was a brief moment of doubt surrounding his win in the final round. Jon Rahm quickly climbed the leaderboard, making up the five-stroke difference between him and Scheffler by the 11th hole.

Two holes later, Rahm nearly shot a birdie that would’ve given him the lead.

However, Scheffler was able to regain control on the back nine after recording three bogeys on the front nine. He birdied the 10th, 14th and 15th holes, en route to victory, practically mirroring the 4 under he shot on the back nine of Saturday’s Round 3. Rahm, meanwhile, shot 5 over in the final three holes to completely fall out of the picture.

For Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 player, the PGA Championship title marks his third major tournament victory. The 28-year-old has been one of golf’s most dominant players over the last couple of years, winning eight tournaments since the start of the 2024 season. But, outside of his two wins at the Masters, in 2022 and 2024, he has struggled to get over the hump at the three other major tournament championships (PGA Championship, US Open, and British Open), recording 10 top-10 finishes at those three events since 2020.

Scheffler’s win also came a year after his arrest at the PGA Championship at Valhalla in Louisville. He was arrested for a traffic incident ahead of Round 2 of that tournament before finishing tied for eighth.

While Scheffler’s main competition throughout Round 4 was Rahm, fellow LIV golfer Bryson DeChambeau hit 1 under on Sunday to salvage a second-place finish. DeChambeau put himself in a good position for the weekend after hitting 3 under on Friday, his best round of the tournament. In that stellar Round 2, he hit three birdies on the front nine, and avoided bogeying throughout the back nine.

He took that momentum into Saturday, finding three more birdies on the front nine and then moving into the top spot after a birdie on the 15th hole.

His lead didn’t last long, though, as he bogeyed on 16 and double-bogeyed on 17.

DeChambeau fell down to as low as sixth place, but a steady Sunday helped him climb back to second. He hit for birdie on the 15th hole for the third time in four tries to cap off a noteworthy PGA Tournament performance.

Here’s a full look at how the top 10 shaped out.

Table of Contents

Final round results

1. Scottie Scheffler -11
T2. Bryson DeChambeau -6
T2. Davis Riley -6
T2. Harris English -6
T5. J.T. Potson -5
T5. Taylor Pendrith -5
T5. Jhonattan Vegas -5
T8. Joaquin Niemann -4
T8. Ben Griffin -4
T8. Denny McCarthy -4
T8. Ryan Gerard -4
T8. Joe Highsmith -4
T8. Keegan Bradley -4
T8. Matt Fitzpatrick -4
T8. Jon Rahm -4
T8. Si Woo Kim -4

How LIV golfers performed at PGA Championship

While Rahm likely had the best shot to win the PGA Championship outside of Scheffler, DeChambeau had the best weekend among the LIV golfers in the tournament. He shot 6 under for the weekend, finishing 1 under in Sunday’s final round. It ties his best finish ever at a PGA Championship as he also finished second in last year’s tournament before winning the U.S. Open for the second time in his career.

Joaquin Niemann also had an impressive day Sunday, shooting 3 under to join the nine golfers who finished tied for eighth. David Puig, on the flip side, struggled. He shot 8 over to finish the tournament 6 over par. Tyrell Hatton also struggled in the fourth round, shooting 6 over to finish 6 over par.

As for the other LIV golfers who made the cut, Richard Bland shot 1 under on Sunday to finish the tournament 1 over. Tom McKibbin shot 2 over on Sunday to finish the tournament 4 over. Sergio Garcia shot 2 under in the fourth round following his 8 over on Saturday to finish the tournament 7 over.

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Jon Rahm, back in mix, is ‘hungry’ for 1st major championship since joining LIV Golf

Jon Rahm is back in contention at a major championship. He joked that he would have had an even better chance to win the third of his career had the spectator he hit in the head with an errant approach shot at the PGA Championship on Saturday been a little better soccer player. Rahm shot […]

Published

3 days ago

May 18, 2025

KP News Desk

Jon Rahm, back in mix, is ‘hungry’ for 1st major championship since joining LIV Golf

Rahm shot a 4-under 67 to get to 6-under-par 207 for the tournament, leaving him five shots behind leader Scottie Scheffler, who played the final five holes in 5 under to reach 11 under.

Rahm won the U.S. Open in 2021 and the Masters in 2023. But this is the first time he’s been anywhere near being in contention for a major championship on the final day since announcing he was joining LIV Golf in December of 2023.

In the four majors since, he’s not finished within eight shots of the lead.

“I mean, it’s hard to express how hungry I may be for a major — about as hungry as anybody can be in this situation,” the Spanish star said. “Very happy to be in position again. Don’t know where I’ll be. … But that’s a great position. This golf course is tricky and one shot is nothing on 18 holes.”

One shot was something on No. 11.

Rahm’s approach shot on the par 4 sailed to the left and his ball hit a fan in the head, sending it careening across the green and into the rough on the other side. Rahm left his chip short and took two putts for one of his two bogeys on the day.

The fan was not injured.

As he approached the green, Rahm walked over to check on him anyway. They shared a few laughs, he signed a golf glove for him and they embraced before he went on with his round.

“I told him, if he was European and grew up playing soccer, and he just aimed a little bit better, maybe just get it closer to the hole,” Rahm said with a laugh.

Rahm knows it won’t be easy to catch Scheffler.

Still, he likes how he’s striking the ball.

“Very happy with the state of my game,” Rahm said. “I think today was the round that I knew I was capable of. Those first two rounds felt very confident, and just did everything a little bit better. So just very excited again to be in this position.”

Reporting by The Associated Press.

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