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India’s Economic Slowdown Eases, but Goldman Sachs Warns of Lingering Market Volatility

As of March 25, 2025, India’s economy is showing signs of recovery after what many have called its toughest slowdown in years. According to a recent Goldman Sachs report highlighted by ANI News, the worst may be behind us—but don’t pop the champagne just yet. While the nation’s economic engine is revving up again, experts […]

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India’s Economic Slowdown Eases, but Goldman Sachs Warns of Lingering Market Volatility
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As of March 25, 2025, India’s economy is showing signs of recovery after what many have called its toughest slowdown in years. According to a recent Goldman Sachs report highlighted by ANI News, the worst may be behind us—but don’t pop the champagne just yet. While the nation’s economic engine is revving up again, experts caution that market volatility could stick around like an uninvited guest, keeping investors on edge.

A Light at the End of the Tunnel

For months, headlines have painted a grim picture of India’s economic landscape—sluggish growth, jittery markets, and a sense of unease among businesses and households alike. But Goldman Sachs, a global financial heavyweight, now says the tide is turning. The report, released on March 26, 2025, suggests that India’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, with key indicators pointing to a gradual rebound. Think of it as the moment the rain finally stops, and you can step outside without an umbrella—cautiously optimistic, but still checking the sky.

What’s driving this shift? For one, India’s resilience is shining through. Despite global headwinds like trade tensions and fluctuating commodity prices, the country’s domestic consumption and agricultural sectors are holding strong, acting as pillars of stability. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) echoed this sentiment earlier this month, noting that consumer spending and rural demand are picking up steam. It’s not a full-on sprint to prosperity, but it’s a steady jog in the right direction.

Volatility: The Unpredictable Guest

Here’s the catch: while the economy might be stabilizing, the financial markets are still doing a bit of a roller coaster dance. Goldman Sachs warns that volatility isn’t going anywhere soon. Why? Global uncertainties—like U.S. tariff threats and geopolitical tensions—are casting long shadows. Closer to home, foreign investors have been pulling funds out since October, sending the Sensex and Nifty into a tailspin from their all-time highs. It’s like trying to enjoy a picnic while the wind keeps blowing your napkins away—frustrating and hard to ignore.

For everyday investors, this means a bumpy ride ahead. Small-cap stocks, once the darlings of the market, have taken a beating, and even blue-chip companies aren’t immune. Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for India remains solid, the short-term could feel like navigating a stormy sea. “Volatility persists,” the Goldman Sachs report notes, urging caution for those hoping for a quick market recovery.

What’s Next for India’s Economy?

So, where does this leave us? For the average Indian—whether you’re a farmer in Punjab, a tech worker in Bengaluru, or a shopkeeper in Mumbai—the news is bittersweet. The economy is clawing its way back, which could mean more jobs, better wages, and a little extra cash in your pocket down the line. But if you’ve got money in the stock market, you might want to buckle up and keep an eye on those global headlines.

Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in its mixed outlook. Other experts, like those at Moody’s Ratings, predict India’s growth could top 6.5% in the next fiscal year, fueled by government spending and a rebound in private investment. Yet, they too nod to the “global uncertainty” that could throw a wrench in the works. It’s a classic case of two steps forward, one step back—progress, but with a side of caution.

Navigating the Road Ahead

For now, India stands at a crossroads. The worst of the economic slowdown may be over, but the path to stability isn’t a straight line. Families and businesses alike are watching closely, hoping the recovery takes root while bracing for market swings. As one market analyst put it, “India’s got the fundamentals to shine, but the world’s a messy place right now.”

If you’re an investor or just someone trying to make sense of it all, the takeaway is simple: there’s hope on the horizon, but don’t bet the farm just yet. Keep your eyes peeled for updates—whether it’s the next RBI report or the latest twist in global trade talks. India’s economic story is far from over, and the next chapter promises to be anything but dull.

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Business

Spices Board host awareness programme on organic production

Spices Board host awareness programme on organic production
Published on April 29, 2025
The programme was inaugurated P. Hemalatha, Secretary, Spices Board. Saswati Bose, General Manager, APEDA, B. N. Jha, Director (Marketing), Spices Board; Dharmendra Das, Director (Development), Spices Board and Joji Mathew, Director (Retd), Spices Board and Lead Auditor, NPOP addressed the participants. P. Hemalatha, Secretary, Spices Board inaugurated one-day sensitisation programme on the 8th edition of the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) on spices. B. N. Jha, Director (Marketing), Spices Board;  Saswati Bose, General Manager, APEDA, Dharmendra Das, Director (Development), Spices Board and . Joji Mathew, NPOP Lead Auditor were present.

The technical sessions featured insightful presentations on organic certification, updated NPOP standards, market trends, and practical challenges. Saswati Bose elaborated on the 8th edition’s provisions for sustainable spice production. The Spices Board, in collaboration with APEDA, conducted a one-day sensitisation programme on the 8th edition of the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) on spices at Kochi. The event aimed to raise awareness on updated NPOP standards for sustainable spice production besides promoting the export of organic spices and spice products.Thejas Thayyil, Business Head, Biowin Agro Research, spoke on the scope and global demand for organic spices. Hemalatha said, “Sustainable agriculture aims to ensure safe and nutritious food at affordable cost, farmer profitability, and environmental conservation. In this context, the 8th edition of NPOP provides essential guidelines for organic spice production in harmony with nature. I hope this programme deepens stakeholders’ understanding and commitment to sustainable practices.”

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Spices Board host awareness programme on organic production

Spices Board host awareness programme on organic production
The technical sessions featured insightful presentations on organic certification, updated NPOP standards, market trends, and practical challenges. Saswati Bose elaborated on the 8th edition’s provisions for sustainable spice production.
Hemalatha said, “Sustainable agriculture aims to ensure safe and nutritious food at affordable cost, farmer profitability, and environmental conservation. In this context, the 8th edition of NPOP provides essential guidelines for organic spice production in harmony with nature. I hope this programme deepens stakeholders’ understanding and commitment to sustainable practices.”The programme was inaugurated P. Hemalatha, Secretary, Spices Board. Saswati Bose, General Manager, APEDA, B. N. Jha, Director (Marketing), Spices Board; Dharmendra Das, Director (Development), Spices Board and Joji Mathew, Director (Retd), Spices Board and Lead Auditor, NPOP addressed the participants. Published on April 29, 2025 Thejas Thayyil, Business Head, Biowin Agro Research, spoke on the scope and global demand for organic spices. The Spices Board, in collaboration with APEDA, conducted a one-day sensitisation programme on the 8th edition of the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) on spices at Kochi. The event aimed to raise awareness on updated NPOP standards for sustainable spice production besides promoting the export of organic spices and spice products.P. Hemalatha, Secretary, Spices Board inaugurated one-day sensitisation programme on the 8th edition of the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) on spices. B. N. Jha, Director (Marketing), Spices Board;  Saswati Bose, General Manager, APEDA, Dharmendra Das, Director (Development), Spices Board and . Joji Mathew, NPOP Lead Auditor were present.

P. Hemalatha, Secretary, Spices Board inaugurated one-day sensitisation programme on the 8th edition of the National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) on spices. B. N. Jha, Director (Marketing), Spices Board; Saswati Bose, General Manager, APEDA, Dharmendra Das, Director (Development), Spices Board and . Joji Mathew, NPOP Lead Auditor were present.

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Analysts seek visibility on tariff impacts on bottomlines, margins

Analysts seek visibility on tariff impacts on bottomlines, margins
Srini Pallia, CEO and MD of Wipro Ltd, felt that the economic environment had become uncertain on the back of tariff increases.
IT analysts have been grilling the top CXOs of top-tier companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro to get a visibility on the terrain in the backdrop of tariffs

IT analysts have been grilling the top CXOs of top-tier companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro to get a visibility on the terrain in the backdrop of tariffs. K Krithivasan, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of TCS, said that the Consumer Business Group saw heightened caution and delays in discretionary projects, especially in the US.Jayesh Sanghrajka, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Infosys, tariffs and trade barriers were likely to lead to a subdued spend and delayed decision-making.

The impact

Based on client conversations, large transformation projects are being paused or delayed. Clients with budgets are waiting for certainty about the situation before moving forward.There is some impact across the board, but there are some sectors more impacted than others. “For instance, our consumer business, you’re seeing more impact like retail, CPG, airlines, travel hospitality, we see more impact. Similarly, there is an impact in the auto sub segment within manufacturing. But if you take BFSI, by and large the segment is doing okay. There is some softness in insurance,” he said.“Retail sector has been impacted by economic uncertainty resulting in lower consumer spending in core markets. Due to recent tariff announcements, client budgets are expected to be tightened and there is increased caution. Decision cycles are getting stretched for discretionary spend and large deals,” he said.Pallia said that after the pause for 90 days on the tariffs, there was a little bit of stability over the last two few weeks. 

Uncertain economic environment 

In the recent earnings call, he said that it was driven by the significant drop in consumer sentiment in February, which had preceded changes in global trade and tariffs, creating a domino effect on retail CPG and TTH (travel, transportation, and hospitality) industries.“The impact of tariffs on IT service providers will be a function of their portfolio of offerings and end markets,” Prashant Shukla, vice president, Everest Group, said. “Weakness in auto, especially in Europe continues. We are helping clients in aerospace resolve bottleneck in the supply chain,” he said. “For instance, in terms of topline and deal pipelines,  part of portfolio which is discretionary in nature with exposure to directly impacted industries like manufacturing will suffer much more than, say, an essential, non-discretionary service with industry which is not directly impacted by tariffs, like banking. In short to medium term, cost-optimisation services will see more takers,” he said.Published on April 28, 2025 “We are seeing this impact not just in the US, but also in Europe. Similarly, these impacts are being seen across sectors, directly or indirectly. But some sectors have been impacted more, like consumer, manufacturing. Within manufacturing, specifically automotive and industrial, are impacted,” he said, responding to a query.Even as reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump trigger an economic chaos across the world, IT analysts and investors are trying to weight how these tariffs could impact the bottomlines and margins of IT companies.He said the clients in all the industries were taking a lot more cautious approach. “And they’re also doing scenario planning, because they would like to see when this whole thing is settled down, before they start making more business decisions,” he said.

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Analysts seek visibility on tariff impacts on bottomlines, margins

Analysts seek visibility on tariff impacts on bottomlines, margins
In the recent earnings call, he said that it was driven by the significant drop in consumer sentiment in February, which had preceded changes in global trade and tariffs, creating a domino effect on retail CPG and TTH (travel, transportation, and hospitality) industries.
Based on client conversations, large transformation projects are being paused or delayed. Clients with budgets are waiting for certainty about the situation before moving forward.Jayesh Sanghrajka, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Infosys, tariffs and trade barriers were likely to lead to a subdued spend and delayed decision-making.Published on April 28, 2025

The impact

“We are seeing this impact not just in the US, but also in Europe. Similarly, these impacts are being seen across sectors, directly or indirectly. But some sectors have been impacted more, like consumer, manufacturing. Within manufacturing, specifically automotive and industrial, are impacted,” he said, responding to a query.“Retail sector has been impacted by economic uncertainty resulting in lower consumer spending in core markets. Due to recent tariff announcements, client budgets are expected to be tightened and there is increased caution. Decision cycles are getting stretched for discretionary spend and large deals,” he said.Srini Pallia, CEO and MD of Wipro Ltd, felt that the economic environment had become uncertain on the back of tariff increases.Pallia said that after the pause for 90 days on the tariffs, there was a little bit of stability over the last two few weeks. 

Uncertain economic environment 

Even as reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump trigger an economic chaos across the world, IT analysts and investors are trying to weight how these tariffs could impact the bottomlines and margins of IT companies.“The impact of tariffs on IT service providers will be a function of their portfolio of offerings and end markets,” Prashant Shukla, vice president, Everest Group, said. “For instance, in terms of topline and deal pipelines,  part of portfolio which is discretionary in nature with exposure to directly impacted industries like manufacturing will suffer much more than, say, an essential, non-discretionary service with industry which is not directly impacted by tariffs, like banking. In short to medium term, cost-optimisation services will see more takers,” he said.IT analysts have been grilling the top CXOs of top-tier companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro to get a visibility on the terrain in the backdrop of tariffs

There is some impact across the board, but there are some sectors more impacted than others. “For instance, our consumer business, you’re seeing more impact like retail, CPG, airlines, travel hospitality, we see more impact. Similarly, there is an impact in the auto sub segment within manufacturing. But if you take BFSI, by and large the segment is doing okay. There is some softness in insurance,” he said.He said the clients in all the industries were taking a lot more cautious approach. “And they’re also doing scenario planning, because they would like to see when this whole thing is settled down, before they start making more business decisions,” he said.“Weakness in auto, especially in Europe continues. We are helping clients in aerospace resolve bottleneck in the supply chain,” he said. IT analysts have been grilling the top CXOs of top-tier companies like TCS, Infosys and Wipro to get a visibility on the terrain in the backdrop of tariffs. K Krithivasan, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of TCS, said that the Consumer Business Group saw heightened caution and delays in discretionary projects, especially in the US.

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Editorial. Not so poor

Editorial. Not so poor
Published on April 27, 2025
It can be reasonably assumed that the implementation of food security schemes as well as crucial direct benefit transfers (Jan Dhan Yojana and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, among others, including those introduced by the States) have made a big difference. The impact of these schemes has been captured through the new methodology used in Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys (HCESs) of 2022-23 and 2023-24. The World Bank draws an important line between extreme poverty and a ‘low and middle income country’ poverty level of .65 a day (PPP terms). Using the latter measure, India’s poverty is seen to have fallen sharply from 61.8 per cent to 28.1 per cent over a decade, lifting 378 million people out of poverty. The two sets of figures corresponding to their respective poverty lines are revealing. They tell us that foodgrain distribution to 80 crore people has perhaps played a big role in reducing extreme poverty; yet, a quarter of the population struggles to make ends meet even as their bare survival needs are provided for. The numerous DBT schemes could be meeting consumption needs in ways that are not entirely understood. Therefore, ‘freebies’ need to be understood in a more granular way with a view to rationalising them, as each could be distinct in its impact. The brief, which derives its conclusions from the HCESs of 2011-12 and 2022-23, also observes a decline in consumption-based inequality, but adds a caveat that this may not be borne out by income-based inequality assessments. It acknowledges that changes in methodology in HCES 2022-23 over its decade-ago version “present challenges for making comparisons”. The HCES data suggests that the urban-rural gap narrowed from 84 per cent in 2011-12 to 71 per cent in 2022-23 and further to 70 per cent in 2023-24. The brief, meanwhile, makes a sobering observation that the median earnings of the top 10 per cent were 13 times higher than the bottom 10 per cent in 2023-24. Owing to methodological issues, it is hard to say whether this marks an improvement over time. The World Bank’s recently released poverty and equity brief on India confirms what many researchers and lay observers have said from time to time — that ‘extreme poverty’ in India, measured in terms of those living on less than .15 a day in 2017 PPP terms, is turning into a footnote. It has fallen from 16.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 2.3 per cent in 2022-23. As a result 171 million people have emerged from a state of dire want.Foodgrain distribution to 80 crore people has perhaps played a big role in reducing extreme poverty

Some of the brief’s observations are puzzling. For instance, the view that “recent data indicates a shift of male workers from rural to urban areas for the first time since 2018-19” does not sit well with Periodic Labour Force Survey data on rising workforce in agriculture in recent years — or for that matter, arguably with a December 2024 study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister that points to a decline in rural to urban migration over a decade. The data noise with respect to India’s socio-economic profile needs serious attention.

Published

on

Editorial. Not so poor

Editorial. Not so poor
It can be reasonably assumed that the implementation of food security schemes as well as crucial direct benefit transfers (Jan Dhan Yojana and PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana, among others, including those introduced by the States) have made a big difference. The impact of these schemes has been captured through the new methodology used in Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys (HCESs) of 2022-23 and 2023-24. The World Bank draws an important line between extreme poverty and a ‘low and middle income country’ poverty level of .65 a day (PPP terms). Using the latter measure, India’s poverty is seen to have fallen sharply from 61.8 per cent to 28.1 per cent over a decade, lifting 378 million people out of poverty. The two sets of figures corresponding to their respective poverty lines are revealing. They tell us that foodgrain distribution to 80 crore people has perhaps played a big role in reducing extreme poverty; yet, a quarter of the population struggles to make ends meet even as their bare survival needs are provided for.
Some of the brief’s observations are puzzling. For instance, the view that “recent data indicates a shift of male workers from rural to urban areas for the first time since 2018-19” does not sit well with Periodic Labour Force Survey data on rising workforce in agriculture in recent years — or for that matter, arguably with a December 2024 study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister that points to a decline in rural to urban migration over a decade. The data noise with respect to India’s socio-economic profile needs serious attention. The World Bank’s recently released poverty and equity brief on India confirms what many researchers and lay observers have said from time to time — that ‘extreme poverty’ in India, measured in terms of those living on less than .15 a day in 2017 PPP terms, is turning into a footnote. It has fallen from 16.2 per cent in 2011-12 to 2.3 per cent in 2022-23. As a result 171 million people have emerged from a state of dire want.Foodgrain distribution to 80 crore people has perhaps played a big role in reducing extreme poverty

Published on April 27, 2025 The numerous DBT schemes could be meeting consumption needs in ways that are not entirely understood. Therefore, ‘freebies’ need to be understood in a more granular way with a view to rationalising them, as each could be distinct in its impact. The brief, which derives its conclusions from the HCESs of 2011-12 and 2022-23, also observes a decline in consumption-based inequality, but adds a caveat that this may not be borne out by income-based inequality assessments. It acknowledges that changes in methodology in HCES 2022-23 over its decade-ago version “present challenges for making comparisons”. The HCES data suggests that the urban-rural gap narrowed from 84 per cent in 2011-12 to 71 per cent in 2022-23 and further to 70 per cent in 2023-24. The brief, meanwhile, makes a sobering observation that the median earnings of the top 10 per cent were 13 times higher than the bottom 10 per cent in 2023-24. Owing to methodological issues, it is hard to say whether this marks an improvement over time.

Continue Reading

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